Bitcoin price holds support at $16,000, a couple of weeks after bears unceremoniously ended a short-term bullish trend at $18,400. BTC’s recovery from $16,404 on December 1 piggybacked on better-than-expected United States’ Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures.
However, like the many hits and misses the largest cryptocurrency has been through in 2022, investors quickly booked profits after the US Federal Reserve announced the decision to hike interest rates by 0.5%. The regulator cautioned that inflation was still its top priority list going into 2023, with investors waiting with bated breaths to see how the continued hawkish response to market data plays out in 2023.
Experts in the industry expect the largest cryptocurrency to chop a little more – possibly moving between $17,000 and $23,000 in 2023. A breakout to an all-time high might call for more patience from investors as the market tries to repair the tainted image caused by the nasty collapse of FTX exchange.
Will Bitcoin Price Hit A New All-Time High Again?
Peter Brandt, the founder and CEO of Factor LLC, a trading company, recently told CNBC viewers that Bitcoin price’s mundane movement may stretch to the end of 2023. However, the pioneer cryptocurrency may see new historical highs after that.
“We [will] just chop between … let’s say $17,000 and $23,000. I think we will bottom here at some point in time, maybe early next year, but then I’m not looking for bitcoin really to become exciting again for another couple of years,” Brandt said during CNBC’s First Mover Program.
The renowned trader says that he doesn’t see Bitcoin price reaching new record highs soon but forecasts a waiting period of about 32 months. According to Brandt, Bitcoin would hit a floor price (bottom) of $13,000.
According to the Changelly blog, Bitcoin might range between $26,366 and $31,479 in 2023, with its average trading price at $27,113. Changelly has been analyzing BTC price for several years and has predictions up to 2031.
“We [will] just chop between … let’s say $17,000 and $23,000,” said Brandt. “I think we will bottom here at some point in time, maybe early next year, but then I’m not looking for bitcoin really to become exciting again for another couple of years,” Changelly says on Bitcoin price prediction.
Rekt Capital, a pseudonymous crypto analyst on Twitter, told his over 330k followers that Bitcoin price is technically set for a downside continuation. He reckons that BTC has confirmed a breakdown below the orange triangle, as shown on the chart below, “by relief rallying into the bottom of the said pattern to turn it into new resistance.”
In his earlier analysis, Rekt Capital said that Bitcoin was repeating “the March 2020 downside wicking to a depth of about -30% below the 200-MA.” He added that historically, the largest crypto tends to form a -14% to a -30% wick below the same moving average. At the moment, the wicking cycles hold within this range but toward the extreme side, which could result in an uptrend.
Altcoin Sherpa, another popular crypto analyst and trader, recently informed his 188k followers on Twitter Bitcoin price may be closer to breaking out of the downtrend. He argues that BTC posted a massive rally in 2019 after hitting the bottom of a bear market, from 3,000 to 14,000.
In his opinion, Altcoin Sherpa reckons that we will “see another bear market rally in 2023.” It may not come close to the rally in 2019, but Bitcoin price could “see some strong moves.”
$BTC: We saw a massive rally in 2019 after the bottom of the bear market; from 3k->14k
— Altcoin Sherpa (@AltcoinSherpa) December 26, 2022
I personally think we'll see another bear market rally in 2023.
Is it going to go as high as 2019 % wise? IMO not close.
But I do think we'll see some strong moves#Bitcoin #BTC pic.twitter.com/ESuEI0K9N0
Nevertheless, the macro environment is very different from 2019, especially with the global economy dealing with inflation. Moreover, China appears to be dealing with a severe COVID-19 variant outbreak, likely to spread across the globe.
Measures being taken to combat inflation may continue to stifle market recovery. Moreover, investor confidence has been largely ruined by the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX exchange.
Altcoin Sherpa adds that a relief rally may fail if the forces the crypto market deals with – both within and outside fail to improve. On the other hand, a strong rally may be unsustainable.
Assessing Bitcoin Price Short-term Technical Outlook
Bitcoin price trades between a wide range, running from $15,717 to $18,392. A break on either side of this range could shape BTC’s trend for the next few weeks. The path with the least resistance appears to be on the downside, bolstered by a rejection from the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) (in red at $17,287.
The ongoing downtrend at $16,605 might slide below a falling trend line (dotted) and validate declines to support envisioned at $15,717. As seen on the chart above, trading below the range might validate Peter Brandt’s bearish prediction of $13,000.
Traders looking forward to shorting Bitcoin soon may do so after the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) sends a sell signal. The call to sell BTC is expected to manifest as the MACD (blue line) crosses below the signal line (in red).
Bitcoin price needs to reclaim support at the 50-day EMA to be on the safe side and pave the way for the resumption of the uptrend. The new uptrend would be validated as Bitcoin price cracks above resistance at $18,392, in confluence with the 100-day EMA (in blue). Further movement to $20,000 will depend on Bitcoin’s ability to break and hold above the upper falling trend line (continuous line).
